90% Odds On CLARITY Act After Third White House Yield Meeting

Key Points

• The White House held a third closed-door meeting on stablecoin yield Thursday between crypto firms and banking trade groups, with no final agreement reached.
• Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse pegged the probability of a crypto market structure bill passing by April at 90%, citing direct White House involvement.
• DeFi users earning stablecoin rewards through exchanges depend on whether the CLARITY Act expands or restricts third-party yield, currently the central dispute.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse pegged the probability of a US crypto market structure bill passing by April at 90% after attending a third closed-door White House meeting on stablecoin yield Thursday. CoinMarketCap reported the meeting on May 23, 2026, noting attendees included the Crypto Council for Innovation, Blockchain Association, banking trade groups, Coinbase’s chief legal officer Paul Grewal, and Ripple’s chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty. For DeFi users earning rewards on stablecoins through exchanges, the substance is which version of the CLARITY Act passes and whether yield restrictions tighten beyond what the GENIUS Act already prohibits.

What The Third White House Meeting Did And Didn’t Resolve

Crypto Council for Innovation CEO Ji Hun Kim called the session “constructive” and said it advanced the framework established in prior meetings.

Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal posted on X that the tone was “cooperative” and that further progress is expected.

The meeting started at 9 a.m. ET and lasted several hours. A source familiar with the proceedings told The Block that no final agreement was reached, despite the White House signaling it wanted participants to remain until a deal was in hand.

Both Kim and Grewal indicated additional discussions are likely before the bill moves forward. The unresolved item: how stablecoin yield should be treated under the digital asset market structure bill, and whether third-party rewards count as direct issuer interest.

Banks vs Crypto: Why The Stablecoin Yield Question Keeps Stalling The Bill

The stablecoin yield question has stalled the legislation at multiple points across two committee cycles. Banks have argued that yield-bearing stablecoins would redirect deposits away from traditional financial institutions, particularly smaller community banks.

Crypto firms have pushed back, saying restrictions on yield would hamper product development and investor returns.

The GENIUS Act, passed last summer, prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying direct interest to holders but leaves open the door for third-party platforms to offer rewards. That distinction has become central to the dispute.

Strip away the institutional framing and this is really about whether a $1k wallet earning rewards through Coinbase Earn or a wallet-side reward program keeps that yield once the CLARITY Act passes.

Readers can track the regulatory yield debate across jurisdictions as US, EU, and UK frameworks converge on the same retail-rewards question.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said in a Fox News interview that his 90% probability estimate is largely attributable to the White House’s direct involvement. Coinbase withdrew its support ahead of a January Senate Banking Committee markup over yield restrictions, tokenized equities, and SEC-vs-CFTC authority questions.

What Polymarket, Brian Armstrong, And Senator Moreno All Read Differently

On Polymarket, the probability of a crypto market structure bill passing has fluctuated between 54% and 85% in recent days, settling at 72% as of Thursday morning.

Sources who spoke with The Block last week estimated the actual odds at between 25% and 60%, citing Trump’s conflicts of interest and the unresolved yield debate as the two primary obstacles.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong cited stablecoin yield restrictions and concerns over tokenized equity provisions when withdrawing support for the January markup. He also warned the bill could shift regulatory authority from the CFTC toward the SEC.

This builds on our earlier read on MiCA 2.0’s stablecoin yield review. Europe’s framework and the US CLARITY Act are converging on the same DeFi-rewards question from different angles.

Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio said at a Wednesday event hosted by World Liberty Financial at Mar-a-Lago that he expects the bill to clear Congress and be signed into law by April.

For DeFi users actively earning rewards, the practical move is to track each exchange’s reward structure and whether yield is paid directly by an issuer or routed through a third-party platform, since that distinction will likely determine post-CLARITY treatment.

Whether the CLARITY Act actually clears Congress by April depends on whether Thursday’s session translates into a Senate Banking Committee markup date. The next scheduling move will tell.

Track more Safety & Risk coverage from RWA Insider as the stablecoin yield rules take shape.